GIC judges itself on 20-year real returns, not a good year
GIC, Singapore’s sovereign fund, judges its performance mainly by one figure: the annualized return it earned above global inflation over the 20 years to March 2025. That came in at 3.8% (5.7% before inflation, in USD), down slightly from 3.9% last year and the lowest since the 2.7% recorded in 2020. GIC calls its long-term returns stable and does not treat the figure as a forecast of what comes next.
Key numbers, and what they mean
3.8%
GIC’s main scorecard: the return it earned above global inflation over the past 20 years. It slipped from 3.9% and is the lowest since 2020, mostly because a strong early-2000s year rolled out of the 20-year window.
23%
Nearly a quarter of the fund is in real estate and infrastructure, private assets GIC holds for the long term. This is where paying the right entry price matters most.
49%
Almost half the portfolio sits in the Americas, mostly the US. GIC added to US and equity exposure over the year.
Asset mix, 2024/25
Equities (public + private)51%
Fixed income26%
Real assets (RE + infrastructure)23%
The read-through
From the report
Takeaway: how to apply it to a portfolio
GIC’s primary measure is realized real return over 20 years, not performance against an index this quarter.
Judge your portfolio over a long horizon against a real target, for example spending plus inflation, not against the hottest index. A 20-year real-return yardstick is what keeps you from chasing or panicking.
The 20-year figure ticked down to 3.8%, but that is the window rolling forward, not a prediction: a strong early-2000s year left the 20-year window and a weaker recent year entered.
Do not read a falling (or rising) trailing return as a forecast. Future returns depend on what you pay today, on starting yields and valuations, not on last decade’s result. If anything, high past returns often mean richer prices and thinner returns ahead.
GIC says its edge in private markets is patience on entry price and spreading commitments across vintages.
At any size, do not rush capital into a single vintage, and pass on deals priced for perfection. Over a long horizon, the price you pay is one of the few things you control.
The Argus lensWhen long-run returns depend on the price you pay and the managers you pick, diligence on each fund matters. We give you an independent read on a manager’s marks and how it compares to similar funds, so you know what you are paying for.
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About the source
GIC’s Report on the Management of the Government’s Portfolio, 2024/25, is the annual public disclosure from Singapore’s sovereign fund for the year ended March 31, 2025. It covers the broad asset mix, geographic exposure, and the 20-year real return that anchors how GIC judges itself. AUM is deliberately not disclosed.